Elephants, rooms and budgets

This budget is as much about the elephant in the room as it is about financial measures and planning. We came to the budget after almost a full calendar year of “will he, won’t he” insofar as Franco Debono was concerned and we had the extra leverage by the man who will henceforth be called The Birthday Party. We assumed that the PN would use the summer to pull its act together and prepare for the inevitable arrival of elections. Summer would allow PN to go into top gear and to stop playing second fiddle to the Labour party’s constant taunts – as well as to the opposition from within the party.

The battle has not been without attrition. Along the way Lawrence Gonzi publicly “lost” one of his greater generals (although there is no doubt that he is operating in the sidelines). Then came the Dalli tsunami. Convenient for the conspiracy theorists, it rid the PN of what most of the current crowd consider to be inconvenient baggage. That gave rise to the musical chairs that we are all familiar with. Tonio Borg was moved upstairs. Whatever blows that would be dealt to the PN with regard to the “conservative” label were considered to be fair game. The PN is cocksure enough to believe that the “liberal mass” can still be thumbscrewed into involuntary submission with the usual endgame formulas of “wasted votes” and “responsible government”. The social rights agenda will eventually be trumped by down to earth contrasts of the “old hat” type.

Tonio the homophobe will be replaced by Francis Zammit Dimech in a sort of prize for past performances – a Ministry for at most six months. Nobody’s kidding anyone. Zammit Dimech may be affable and loyal but under other circumstances he would be anything but top choice for the job. He is being trusted to muster that part of the ship until the elections (and yes, for the punctilious, a little after). Meanwhile the post of deputy leader is the subject of a trumped up battle between old and new while other stalwarts chose to sit back and watch. Will Simon or Tonio F. do the job? That remains to be seen. They still remain distractions from the final target.

Which brings me to the budget. Franco Debono has long called dibbs on the right to bring the government down by voting against the budget. Everybody knew that but the PM and his crew have been acting as though the elephant is not in the room. Which leaves an ugly sort of damocles sword on the whole business. How credible is a budget plan if we know that they knew it would not be approved? What is to stop the PN from promising the earth. Joseph Muscat tried to call the bluff by claiming he would keep the “good parts” but of course he will vote against the budget. Let’s leave him to his contradictions for now and ask the question: what is this budget for exactly?

Well the Pn obviously thinks that this budget will be an integral part of their pitch for a new mandate. They don’t care if the PL and Franco will not vote in its favour. They want to take it to the people. And the people as we know are not easily swayed.

Back to Joseph Muscat. He is displaying an amazing level of shortsightedness in this business. It is all about parliamentary custom and tradition. First he gives us the contradictory message of wanting to vote the government out by disapproving the budget but promising to keep the good parts. That was very much what the government wanted from him – to be able to expose the opportunist, power-hungry man that he is. The second, more important, mistake lies in Joseph Muscat aiding and abetting the lone rebel backbencher.

If Muscat were half the statesman he wishes to be then he would be operating differently. The interest of governance and governability would trump his greed for getting into government. He should not be reinforcing Franco Debono and that parliamentarian’s hara-kiri. At the end of the day the election is months away in any case – budget or no budget. Muscat could use this opportunity to pull the carpet from under Franco’s legs and be in command of his own party’s destiny. His best move would be to instruct two or more of his MPs (how many are necessary) to abstain in the budget vote. The budget would pass, without the vote of labour who would go on record as having voted against.

What would NOT happen is a backbencher being the cause of the downfall of a government. That is an important precedent for parliament. It would be an important precedent for Muscat’s party too. The PLPN would be sending out the message that they would not aid and abet any backbencher who suddenly develops a god complex. It is another important element for our constitutional democracy. Something that the progressive labourites should be able to understand without too much of a struggle.

Is Joseph Muscat capable of such a groundbreaking constitutional manoeuvre? I doubt it. His every act ever since he was made leader of the party has been directed to getting into Castille. Many would argue that that is his business. It may be, but it is not the primary duty of the leader of the opposition. That duty is to constructively oppose and contribute in the development of our fledgling democracy. But Joseph is too busy dealing with the elephant in the room.

In un paese pieno di coglioni, ci mancano le palle.