Let me tell you about Clever Hans. A few years before the end of the 19th century, 1895 to be exact, a horse who would be named Hans was born. Hans was owned by an eccentric guy called Wilhelm von Osten who had taken it upon himself to prove that given the right education animals could be as intelligent as humans. His didactic experiments kicked off with a bear, a cat and, of course, Hans the horse. The bear and cat soon fell back in their studies but Hans was very promising.
In fact, as Wikipedia reports, “Hans was said to have been taught to add, subtract, multiply, divide, work with fractions, tell time, keep track of the calendar, differentiate musical tones, and read, spell, and understand German. Von Osten would ask Hans, “If the eighth day of the month comes on a Tuesday, what is the date of the following Friday?” Hans would answer by tapping his hoof. Questions could be asked both orally, and in written form. Von Osten exhibited Hans throughout Germany, and never charged admission. Hans’s abilities were reported in The New York Times in 1904.” (see here for more)
Hans’ prodigious efforts attracted much attention, especially among the scientific community eager to see whether it was true that a horse could be as intelligent as a human being. Based on the type of problems Hans solved it had been estimated that the horse had acquired the intelligence of a 14-year old human. Fascinating. Better still, a panel of scientists and experts tested Hans (twice) and reported that they could find no evidence for fraud. That is until a psychologist named Oscar Pfungst studied Hans a little more and found the “trick”. There was no fraudulent intent really and everyone involved had simply been duped by a very, very clever horse. In fact what Hans had been actually doing was not answering problems but watching the reactions of human observers.
Whether answering by tapping his hoof or nodding his head, Hans had learnt to “read” whoever was watching him. The psychologist observed that whoever was testing Hans gave off “indicators” whenever Hans was approaching the right answer. Hans’s interrogators actually prompted his actions by the movement of their heads for example. When the interrogator’s head bent forward, Hans kicked off his “answering”, when it went back to being straight Hans stopped. The more the interrogator inclined the head (probably out of curiosity to see the horse at work) the faster Hans’s answers were tapped. Hans was really clever – not intelligent though, simply able to read body language in an incredibly efficient manner. Pfungst noticed that the interrogators were not conscious of the fact that they were actually leading the horse to the right answer. Hans’s fame suffered the consequences of this discovery and the poor horse died during in World War I – enrolled as one of the many war horses.
The “clever hans” effect remains cited in psychology circles and led to the development of double blind tests where both the interrogator and the person replying would not know the answer to the questions being posed. I have a strong suspicion that our current Prime Minister’s first two years in charge have been greatly infused with a strong Clever Hans effect. In our case it is Clever Joseph. With a “promise the world” campaign combined with an efficient grumble machine, Muscat got elected to power with a landslide victory. His promises then needed delivering. The self-avowed salesman has been hailed as a sort of saviour of the economy and of Malta’s state of affairs notwithstanding the fact that the facts actually prove rather the contrary when examined with a long-term ruler in mind.
Yesterday’s budget reply by Simon Busuttil was yet another step in the direction of countering the Clever Hans effect that Muscat has been (and will try to continue) milking. Busuttil’s speech was criticised because apparently it did not say what alternatives a nationalist government would offer. Aside from the PN pre-budget document, which did just that, Busuttil’s speech served as the umpteenth “Emperor has no clothes” speech which is badly needed in a country of blinded interlocutors who are still strongly convinced that the horse pulling the front of the chariot is intelligent and knows what it is doing. All the while all that Clever Joseph is doing is reading their faces and telling them that what they want is what they see… and this couldn’t be further from the truth. From Magritte (ceci n’est pas une pipe) to Clever Hans (the not so intelligent horse)… a kingdom, a kingdom for a real prime minister!
Clever Joseph’s salesman antics will work for a time yet. So long as this government for a few can throw pepper in the eyes of the electorate with a few more circus acts he will go on riding the Clever Joseph wave. Simon’s litany of figures and facts will hopefully not only serve as a stern “I told you so” when it is already too late. The ominous idea of the end of EU funding in 2020 will be no laughing matter. By then Clever Joseph will have pulled out of his circus, probably having risked one trick too many.
