Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi said this evening that he viewed the result of the European Parliament elections as “worse than we wished for but better than expected.”
Once the Labour euphoria of interpreting this result as a vote of no-confidence in the nationalist government has abated we might be able to examine these election results from a European perspective – particularly by examining how the Maltese parties fared when compared with their European counterparts.
The biggest Europe wide surprise is that the European Socialists did not make the gains that they had been widely predicted to obtain. It would seem that the victory in Malta for the Labour is rather anomalous and goes against the general current. In fact as news of more results come in a general trend of “victories” for centre-right parties is coming surprisingly into view. It had been widely expected that centre-right parties and governments would bear the brunt of the public backlash to all the ills associated with the economic crunch (see local Labour campaign blaming it all on Gonzi) but none of this seems to have materialised.
From Berlusconi’s Forza Italia to Sarkozy’s UMP, incumbent governments seem to have registered surprising victory after surprising victory. The same has happened in Germany, Poland, and most of the eastern 10 as centre-right parties (mostly members of the EPP) grabbed a lion’s share of the votes.
All of which puts Gonzi’s quote of “better than expected” into a harsh perspective. While other sites are already busy conjuring up a blame game pointing their fingers at the Green campaign or ungrateful voters it would seem that the PN apparatchiks might be about to repeat the same analytical mistakes they rushed too after last year’s relative majority victory.
Judging by the European picture, Gonzi’s party main excuse of having to bear the brunt of the disgruntled vote does not hold water. Parties in a similar position as Gonzi’s PN fared much much better than the party of Taste and Flair. They did not point their fingers at irritant green parties and track records. They went out there and won their battle for seats – probably because they offered a clear idea of what their particular corner of the EPP rainbow would be representing.
While we sit back crossing fingers that our preferred candidates get elected to Brussels it might be worth a while to reflect on this point.
ADDENDUM: Another interesting point to reflect upon is that in some countries where the centre-right dominated the elections, the Green parties and the Extreme Right (anti-immigrant movements) also gained seats. AD’s downsurge MIGHT be read in this light too (obviously among many other factors). Their obvious veering to the left reduced the attractiveness of the party as a stand-alone vote and to a certain extent might have dented the credibility of its potential as a “watchdog” representative. AD, like PN, might have also suffered from the absentee vote. Which goes to show that when the non-fanatics or floaters stay at home the two parties that have much to lose are PN and AD. AD might need to learn that flirting with Muscat’s fictitious left gets you nowhere.
More info here:
12 replies on “For Better or For Worse”
Għalija d-differenza kollha kienet fil-fattur “Alfred Sant”. Is-sena li għaddiet il-PL ‘irnexxielhom’ jitilfu l-elezzjoni minnħabba fieh u did-darba m’għadux hemm, u għalhekk ħafna nies regghu lura lejn il-Labour. Żid imbagħad il-fatt li l-PN ilhom fil-gvern 22 sena u wieħed m’għandux għalfejn jissorprendi ruħu bir-riżultat.
Arcibald, merhba lura l-ewwelnett, konan ilna ma narawk. Difficli taqbel jew ma taqbilx ma l-analizi tieghek. Nahseb li Sant fattur irrilevanti f’din il-kwistjoni. Bih u minghajru xorta kien ikun hemm maggoranza ta’voti ghall-PL. Nahseb ukoll li jghodd hafna min hareg jivvota. Dawn it-78% huma forsi il-core voters – l-unswingeables. Forsi hemm ukoll il-“frivolously swingeable” i.e. dawk li minghalihom jistghu “jahlu” vot biex jaghtu tidwiba bi protesta ghax skonthom dawn l-elezzjonijiet “ma jghoddux”.
Minix qed nghid li bhalissa ma hawnx hafna nies li kieku jivvutaw Muscat. Qed nghid li f’perspettiva nazzjonali il-vot probabbli ghadu “by default” u f’perspettiva ta’ rapprezentanza ewropea il-vot mar ghal ghajnu.
Ghallinqas iz-zewg kandidati fuq quddiem, taqbel jew ma taqbilx maghhom huma kompetenti. (Qed nirreferi ghal Simon Says Busuttil u Louis Grech). Kemm se jaqbzu ghac-cittadin meta dritttijietu jintrifsu b’nuqqas ta applikazzjoni tad-dritt ewropew hija haga ohra. Nibqa ninsisti li vot intelligenti kien itella ukoll lil kandidat tal-AD (f’dwan ic-cirkustanzi).
I’m not sure there is so much to be learnt from analysing the Maltese result in the light of a European centre-right victory. Malta has a governing party that has been repeatedly elected by default, leaving European and local councils as the only possibilities for expressing disapproval whether by voting for minor parties or by bot turning up at all. The opposition party has a new leader and new image after 16 years of Alfred Sant, and Muscat is still in honeymoon mode where he can make empty promises about divorce and other civil rights without being exposed to too much scrutiny. I’m not sure that the same can be said of many other European States.
I would actually say that Daphne hit the nail on the head when she said that PN should take divorce away from Labour and do something about it before the next general election. This would take away the one policy platform that Labour claims to have (which in fact it does not, becuase it is a personal platform for the party leader, not the party’s platform).
I think that she also was right when she said that AD played right into Labour’s hands by failing to distinguish themselves from Labour. And we know that pale blue voters, such as are AD’s staple, would choose deep blue over pale red any day.
Insomma Jacques – ara l-elezzjoni tal-Parlament Ewropew ta’ hames snin ilu. L-MLP xorta gabu 48% ‘biss’ ghalkemm kienu ilhom fl-oppozizzjoni mhux hazin. Issa kollu ghalxejn wara kollox… li hemm hemm hux.
Hi Jacques!
Interesting analysis but sometimes far-fetched.
I agree with some of your points but disagree with most, for a change.
However,please allow me first to applaud the right-wing parties all-over Europe for their fantastic results. Chapeau to the Lega Nord and the BNP for their resilience and resolve -being coherent pays.
So back to the criticism of your analysis.
You seem to have defined and included Gonzi’s PN as a centre-right party when in infact it is quite the opposite. It has long been infiltrated, corrupted by socialist or other leftist ideologies. Right-winged parties all over Europe listened to the people’s woes and responded firmly, in spite of harsh criticism from the left-leaning media. PN completely ignored the peope’s troubles ie illegal immigration, rising cost of living, exorbitant electricty bills, collapsing NHS, contradictory MEPA decisions etc etc ad nauseam. Gonzi tried to veer and modify some of his policies at the very last minute in a desperate attempt to halt the haemorrhage of votes from the PN but the Maltese people (who might be ignorant but certainly arent stupid)didnt believe him this time round.
AN gained few votes and that was quite predictable given the lethal combination of lack of ideas and poor quality of candidates.
AD. It took the public some time to realise but better late then never. This is a bright red party that has given its back to its country in times of need. Now people do not even trust them with a protest vote….wich is very, very bad. Pity for Arnold Cassola who is a learned man but certainly not a politician, even though he tries to earn a living out of it….
IE. Well done to Mr. Lowell. You have been attacked and vilified by everybody, including the undignified representatives of the State. They attempted to shut you up in the typical subtle democratic way but they didnt manage. The media ignored you. You were generously given 5 minutes on TV to deliver your message while the ‘politicians’ of the major parties wasted everybody’s time with the usual brothel on public TV. I might not agree with a good percentage of your views but you are certainly a ray of light in this gloomy political scenario. I expect the BA to grant your party as much time on TV as AD, given the electoral results. Well done, e boia chi molla!
PL. JM esctatic with his 55%, understandable for a beginner. After the carcading and celebrations (again understandable) he should sit under a tree like Siddartha Gautama and meditate. Without huge powers of meditation he should be quickly enlightened on the fact that his results are in reality worse than Alfred Sant’s (and that’s saying something). I believe that if Gonzi wakes up in time from his long, deep sleep he might be in trouble in 4 years time.
Good night Jacques. Keep well.
I’m sorry but you cannot really compare the 2008 and 2009 elections and say that JM got less votes than Sant. This argument is illogical for 2 main reasons:
1) MEP elections can never attract the same level of interest as a general election hence the lower turnout. But its a mistake to conclude that the apathy was only on the PN side and all labourites went out to vote. There are many PL voters who for one reason or another were not interested in the EU elections but would vote in an election to elect a PL govt.
2)For a more accurate comparison you need to compare with 2004 then calculate what percentage Sant managed to keep proportionately in 2008 then do the same calculation with 2009 and a prospective 2013 election. Your result won’t seem too nice for PN….
Having said that there are many more factors to keep in mind and I’m sure the parties will have a much more accurate internal analysis.
I am certain about one thing though – although PN were expecting a defeat, they were’nt expecting a 35,000 vote drubbing. You could tell by Pierre Portelli’s face on TV and the general numbness after the result was announced that they were speechless.
@DV
It is not a matter of apathy or otherwise by the PN crowd. That has nothing to do with this comparison. The only reason I am comparing 2008 with 2009 is simple: Joseph Muscat promised change. He going through great measures to try to emphasise that this was NOT a protest vote but a vote FOR A NEW MOVEMENT. One would expect that INDEPENDENTLY OF PN or the nature of the election, this would be a good measure of the people’s reply to his rallying call.
It is not J’accuse that is calling this an earthquake, a movement of change, a coalition of whatever… it is Joseph Muscat. So. In that respect the figure is not 55% of the share of whoever voted in the EP election but head-for-head how many people have answered the call for a new movement of change.
It would seem that the answer is less than those who thought Alfred Sant could lead the next government.
@J’Accuse
Granted, but you can hardly put this in the context of a general election. This is the year 2009 and not 1986. Many people consider politics and voting as passe regardless of how sick they are of the nats.
It is also true that JM made a rallying call for change but although many of those who did not vote may have wanted change they may have not bothered to vote since it was a european election and there was no govt. at stake. The same applies for the blue voters of course.
It is unrealistic to expect a high voter turnout in an mep election because it is simply what it is – not a general election!
If I were to analyse the result I would be interested with the voter swing more than anything else….
@DV Yes. I can see your point. What I cannot see is how one can begin analysing the swing. As far as I can tell the result is undecipherable – not that I am a stat king (there’s Fausto for that). On the other hand the very undecipherability of the result is ironic because while people voted on anything but European issues and therefore should have reflected local issues and tendencies the result tells us anything but what the people are really thinking (especially the intelligent voters).
The only measurable data of any significance is how many traditional blue voters opted for PL instead of AD or staying at home.
This can be measured when comparing to 2004. It is true that 2004 AD voters may have stayed at home – but the parties can easily find this out by analysing the people who didnt vote.
Word has it that the non voters were evenly spread with a slightly larger proportion (about 2,000) being nationalists. So you can automatically deduce that many of the pale blue voters that chose AD instead of Sant in 2004 now feel that they can trust JM’s PL.
This is comforting for Labour.
33000 swing to labour in one year then? Sounds very realistic.
@justin. Ikolli nammetti li ghandek punt… forsi sirna Nation of Swingers!