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I.M. Jack – The EP Sophisms (5)

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5. The Joke

A huge lesson that this election has definitely reaffirmed is that the notion of an ‘intelligent voter’ is a rarity. The trouble runs deeper. It is not only the ‘intelligent’ voter who is conspicuous in his absence but also the ‘informed’ voter. It appears that nobody, or next to nobody, had any real clue about what kind of person is really needed to be effective in the European Parliament.

Readers and detractors may be forgiven if they read this with the “sour grape” meter because they believe that J’accuse is bitter about the lack of cross-votes or votes to AD. Far from it. The ‘ignorant’ (or if we want to sound less snobbish – the ‘fanatic’ vote) has continued to let itself be milked and nurtured and has spread as fast as a Californian wildfire.

The shepherds of the ignorant vote are the Great Duopoly that operates within a power structure of its making (unconsciously I would add) and thrives on the race to mediocrity. The stakes were unclear and the agenda and battleground were either hazy or irrelevant. And we revelled in it. This time round it was the PL’s turn to shout empty hoorays while the PN ‘shrewd’ analysts yelled “Ungrateful”.

The saddest part of it all is that the electorate voting on whims and fancies (and taste and flair and hurts and pains) are unwilling to use their vote to effectively obtain real change and send out a message. The joke, unfunny as it is, remained squarely on the shoulders of Joe Public.

And the only ones laughing are Simon Busuttil, David Casa, Louis Grech, Edward Scicluna, John Attard Montalto and (maybe not so much) Joseph (He ain’t heavy he’s my brother) Cuschieri.

The Haiku

universal vote

no cause for celebrating

when the joke’s on you

sophism

1. a specious argument for displaying ingenuity in reasoning or for deceiving someone.

2. any false argument or fallacy. — sophister, n.sophistic, adj.

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I.M. Jack – The E.P. Sophisms (4)

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4. Counting Votes

The agony and ecstasy in Naxxar has gone on for over two days and we are nowhere nearer having more than one directly elected candidate (Simon Says Busuttil). The preference votes should have jumped from red to blue to green to black like a drunken frog and there were moments when the tension on both sides of the perspex was palpable even through the reports on the ether.

Much to Arnold Cassola’s dismay the electorate rejected the possibility of cross-voting (even with the gargantuan eye-opening efforts of pompous J’accuse). In most cases they stuck to the party lists (in the Nationalist cases they have long learnt to stick tothe few candidates their hero supports). But is there a way out? A threshold for party lists?

The “6 Xs” solution, where every voter just marks an X near six candidates of his choice cannot be considered. The problem there is that this election would have produced 6 labour seats since the parties would have proposed six candidates each and the party garnering most votes would automatically fill all seats. J’accuse cannot see a viable alternative. Neither can smug Jason Micallef who wants a revamp of the vote counting system but mentions no solutions (for a change).

The Haiku

preference voting

tedious wait to inherit

a tense heritage

sophism

1. a specious argument for displaying ingenuity in reasoning or for deceiving someone.
2. any false argument or fallacy. — sophister, n.sophistic, adj.
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I.M. Jack – The EP Sophisms (3)

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3. The Agony Aunt

Watching Jason Micallef on Bondi+ you could easily begin to tear the hair out of your head. One by one. Jason Micallef really believes that there is no problem for PL if they attract people to their fold simply “ghax imwegghin” (because they are hurt) even if it is evident that there could be no solution for their hurts.

Take the scantily dressed man who was celebrating at the Labour victory and very evidently believed that with this vote he could now practise his hobby of “insib” (catching birds). Jason Micallef smiled gleefully when asked whether he was not aware that Labour could never give the man his hobby back.

To Jason Micallef what counts is that “in-nazzjonalisti dahku bih” (the Nationalists cheated him) and that only Labour can empathise with that fact. Jason Micallef is absolutely unable to see an anomaly in the fact that he is planning to emulate the Nationalists in four years time by leading this very man to believe that Labour will implement what neither it, nor the PN, can implement.

A vote for Labour in this current stage of evolution means shifting from a valueless, unsympathetic party in government to a hopeless, clueless and directionless party that simply exists in the hope of wining an election without any thoughts beyond that. Thank God there are EP elections for them to let off steam.

The Haiku

labour empathy

vote a shoulder to cry on

get gvern tal-biki

sophism

1. a specious argument for displaying ingenuity in reasoning or for deceiving someone.
2. any false argument or fallacy. — sophister, n.sophistic, adj.
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I.M. Jack – The EP Sophisms (2)

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2. The Internecine Warfare

There’s cracks in the party and now it’s a show for everyone to see. The Nationalist party was not only the main party to suffer from this general vote of no confidence in the system. For the first time ever the cracks and faults within the flailing structure of the party from Triq Herbert Ganado were clear for all to see. It was unclear what the party was running for, who was running the campaign and whether the party had a clear vision to sell.

The cherry on the cake was the very evident lack of teamwork for the campaign. The drawn-out saga of inherited votes showed, among many other pointers in this undecipherable campaign, that there was little passing of votes between PN candidates. Pick’n’mix did not only not work but it backfired.

Lastly the hero status of Simon Busuttil might have been useful to garner 68,000+ ones but seriously dented the chances of other candidates from putting on an appearance of their own – and probably led to some campaign gimmicks and statements that are best forgotten.

The Haiku

gonzi pn’s team

united it did not seem

cracks began to show

sophism

1. a specious argument for displaying ingenuity in reasoning or for deceiving someone.
2. any false argument or fallacy. — sophister, n.sophistic, adj.
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I.M. Jack – The EP Sophisms (1)

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1. The “Earthquake”

This is the first in a series of pill-sized reflections on the outcome of this year’s EP elections. We kick off with Joseph Muscat’s Labour and query their cause for celebration. The figures are such that would not justify any excessive jubilation. PL 2009 has less votes (head to head) than MLP 2008. There is no doubt that PL has an absolute majority of votes cast with numbers unprecedented in any kind of election in Malta.

The question is does this amount to an “earthquake” or false alarm? J’accuse thinks that the votes that count stayed home. How sure are we, for example, that the AD votes of 2004 went to PL and did not stay at home? Who can say that for a certainty?

The Haiku

joe muscat ‘s earthquake

less votes than sant got last year

not earth shattering

sophism

1. a specious argument for displaying ingenuity in reasoning or for deceiving someone.
2. any false argument or fallacy. — sophister, n.sophistic, adj.
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For Better or For Worse

Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi said this evening that he viewed the result of the European Parliament elections as “worse than we wished for but better than expected.”

Once the Labour euphoria of interpreting this result as a vote of no-confidence in the nationalist government has abated we might be able to examine these election results from a European perspective – particularly by examining how the Maltese parties fared when compared with their European counterparts.

The biggest Europe wide surprise is that the European Socialists did not make the gains that they had been widely predicted to obtain. It would seem that the victory in Malta for the Labour is rather anomalous and goes against the general current. In fact as news of more results come in a general trend of “victories” for centre-right parties is coming surprisingly into view. It had been widely expected that centre-right parties and governments would bear the brunt of the public backlash to all the ills associated with the economic crunch (see local Labour campaign blaming it all on Gonzi) but none of this seems to have materialised.

From Berlusconi’s Forza Italia to Sarkozy’s UMP, incumbent governments seem to have registered surprising victory after surprising victory. The same has happened in Germany, Poland, and most of the eastern 10 as centre-right parties (mostly members of the EPP) grabbed a lion’s share of the votes.

All of which puts Gonzi’s quote of “better than expected” into a harsh perspective. While other sites are already busy conjuring up a blame game pointing their fingers at the Green campaign or ungrateful voters it would seem that the PN apparatchiks might be about to repeat the same analytical mistakes they rushed too after last year’s relative majority victory. 

Judging by the European picture, Gonzi’s party main excuse of having to bear the brunt of the disgruntled vote does not hold water. Parties in a similar position as Gonzi’s PN fared much much better than the party of Taste and Flair. They did not point their fingers at irritant green parties and track records. They went out there and won their battle for seats – probably because they offered a clear idea of what their particular corner of the EPP rainbow would be representing. 

While we sit back crossing fingers that our preferred candidates get elected to Brussels it might be worth a while to reflect on this point.

ADDENDUM: Another interesting point to reflect upon is that in some  countries where the centre-right dominated the elections, the Green parties and the Extreme Right (anti-immigrant movements) also gained seats. AD’s downsurge MIGHT be read in this light too (obviously among many other factors). Their obvious veering to the left reduced the attractiveness of the party as a stand-alone vote and to a certain extent might have dented the credibility of its potential as a “watchdog” representative. AD, like PN, might have also suffered from the absentee vote. Which goes to show that when the non-fanatics  or floaters stay at home the two parties that have much to lose are PN and AD. AD might need to learn that flirting with Muscat’s fictitious left gets you nowhere.

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