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Risks of a Libyan No-Fly Zone

RANIER FSADNI penned a brilliant article in today’s Times of Malta analysing the risks of a Libyan No-Fly Zone. He has kindly agreed for J’accuse to reproduce this article here as a Zolabyte:

As I write (Tuesday morning), Muammar Gaddafi is advancing east towards a showdown with Benghazi. Pressure is growing on the United Nations’ Security Council to approve the imposition of a no-fly zone in Libya.

The case is being made by the Libyan rebels as well as (most prominently) by France, the UK and the Arab League. The US has been troubled, however, by the consideration that military action could end up bolstering Libyan support for Col Gaddafi.

One can see why. At least three of the major assumptions behind the request are not as solid as they look.

First, it is assumed that the battle for Libya is a fight between the Libyan people, as a whole, and Col Gaddafi’s militias. However, there are important western centres that have conspicuously not committed themselves.

There is Tarhuna, with its major tribe, the Ferjan. There is Bani Walid, centre of the Warfalla, said to be a million strong. And there are the two major tribes of the south, the Magarha and the Awlad Suleiman. Between them, these tribes dominate large parts of Tripolitania, down to the south proper. If they take a stand, several smaller tribes are likely to join them.

All four have branches settled in Sirte and its hinterland, which means they are settled on the major boundary the rebel army in the east has to cross. And they are inter-married with Col Gaddafi’s tribe, the Gadadfa.

They have not taken a formal stand for Col Gaddafi. (However, on Tuesday, Libyan state TV announced a letter of support from a group of unnamed representatives of Tarhuna.) But neither have they taken an unequivocal stand with the rebels. Occasional reports concerning the Warfalla have come to nothing so far.

So, what would these tribes do in the face of the considerable military aggression needed to impose a no-fly zone? They all have a proud history of anti-colonial struggle. So do the tribes of the east but the imposition of a no-fly zone is more likely to afflict the western tribes with inevitable “collateral damage”, the accidental killing of civilian men, women and children.

I’m not sure anyone knows the answer to that question. But if Col Gaddafi persuades that the allied attacks constitute imperial aggression, the no-fly zone could end up sparking the civil war that has so far been avoided.

The second assumption is that the rebels do want a no-fly zone. They are, of course, explicitly requesting it and recognising that it would entail bludgeoning attacks on Libyan territory. But it is not clear their understanding of one of their key conditions – no foreign ground troops – is the same as that of, say, a supporter like US Senator John Kerry.

When one of the rebel leaders sought to illustrate what he meant, he said that, of course, if a foreign pilot’s plane was shot down, it would be all right if he parachuted himself down to Libyan territory – “he would be our guest”. It is indicative of how strictly the rebels reject the idea of foreign ground troops that it was thought worth pointing out that concession.

In any case, however, the likelihood is that a pilot would bail out far closer to Col Gaddafi’s forces.

And the record of the US and UK armies is that they send troops on helicopter gunships to rescue soldiers stranded behind enemy lines. Nor is it to be excluded (a notorious case arose in Afghanistan) that stranded soldiers may need to decide, at short notice, whether to kill civilians who have accidentally discovered their hideout.

In short, the distinction between a no-fly zone and ground troops could be messy in practice. Even if the rebel leaders relent on their current firm rejection of any foreign troops on Libyan soil, specific incidents may give them a difficult time with their own people. The third assumption is that regional Arab involvement in a no-fly zone unequivocally aids the effort. Not necessarily; it depends on whose narrative carries the day.

Libyan state TV is portraying the Arab League’s secretary general, Amre Moussa, as a munafiq (hypocrite, but with connotations of treachery in Islamic history), bribed with US support for his presidential candidacy in Egypt. News of Egypt resuming exports of gas to Israel has been given prominence. The narrative of US/Israeli control over oil supplies and the Arab world is being pushed.

It may gain currency if the US continues to take a meeker stance in response to state repression of protests in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. A weak stance may indeed be the price the US has to pay for Saudi support in Libya. In that case, however, it would be easier for Col Gaddafi to portray US concerns over violence in Libya as a hypocritical pretext, with the real motive being control over oil.

Individually, each of these risks can be mitigated. In combination, they must feature prominently in the calculations of the US and Col Gaddafi as they assess what lies within grasp and what could be fatal overreach.

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Zolabytes is a rubrique on J’accuse – the name is a nod to the original J’accuser (Emile Zola) and a building block of the digital age (byte). Zolabytes is intended to be a collection of guest contributions in the spirit of discussion that has been promoted by J’accuse on the online Maltese political scene for 5 years.
Opinions expressed in zolabyte contributions are those of the author in question. Opinions appearing on zolabytes do not necessarily reflect the editorial line of J’accuse the blog.
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Politics Values

Reality Bites

The Times reports that Alex Vella Gera and Mark Camilleri, respectively the author and the editor in the Li Tkisser Sewwi saga, have been acquitted of publishing pornographic and obscene material. So much for “censorship” then. It’s not like the fuss was not necessary, it’s not like there was no need for a discussion as to why a University rector might feel the need to involve the boys in uniform because of his fears about the content of a piece of writing.

This is a huge wake up call to all those who have been yelling about fascist governments and censorship. J’accuse pointed out, time and time again, that the law is there to be applied and that we could not yell censorship unless the courts of law actually thought that the law on pornography applied to the content. We will have the fury of literati bearing down upon us again but the naked truth is now written in the court judgement handed down by Magistrate Audrey Demicoli. Stories like Li Tkisser Sewwi are not considered pornographic or obscene under Maltese law.

So what are we left with? An overzealous rector and a police force that once again gets trumped in court (pole dancers, obscenity and pornography – all in a days work). On the other hand there will be less excuses for the illuminati of this world to yell “censorship”, “oppression” or “fascism” at some trumped up ghost.

Ironic as it may seem* reality does bite every now and again.

*phrase sponsored by PG’s tips.

Also on the subject:
Mark Biwwa’s : Violence and Obscenity Maltese Style

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J'accuse : Unbearable Lightness

There is a German expression “Einmal ist keinmal” which translates to “once does not count” or “once is nothing”. If something happens only once then it might as well not have happened at all. Milan Kundera’s “The Unbearable Lightness of Being” is an examination of human existence from the point of view of the idea that every person has only one life to live and since once does not count then, by this logic, that life (which only happens once) is insignificant. By this logic every person’s struggle to make his own life significant causes him an incredible amount of suffering: the unbearable lightness of being.

Einmal ist keinmal. Once does not count. We tend to think in cycles when trying to explain the great narrative of human history. Whether we are looking at the recurrence of revolutions or the recurrence of natural catastrophes, we compare and contrast. We like to call them the lessons of history: a history that has often taught us that repetition is in itself a constant. Does that repetition lessen our sense of insignificance? Does our experience gathered in the DNA of the human race count for anything in shifting the balance away from the unbearable lightness?

Nippon

The world woke up in shock on Friday having witnessed the calamitous events in Japan. Scenes that seemed scripted in Hollywood played live on our screens, as office blocks shook, fires blazed and tsunamis obliterated entire cities. The Land of the Rising Sun could not be more detached from our tangible realities. There is a surreal feel to anything that comes from the Nipponic archipelago to Europe and, speaking for myself, I find that I have to do a double-take to remember that the unbearable lightness of being in Sendai can be very much the same as in Marsaxlokk.

Thousands of people perished in one of the greatest earthquakes since 1908. Statistics about the greatest quake or the largest tsunami serve as a reminder that this was not the first quake nor will it be the last. The Japanese, a great, enterprising people who had lifted the phoenix from the ashes of Hiroshima and Nagasaki know that. That is why the effect of the quake on buildings was not as high as it could have been in any other country. The Japanese have learnt the lessons of history and were prepared for the big shake. It seems that the terror from the sea (as best symbolised by Godzilla in modern mythology) could not be so easily quelled. There’s yet another lesson to be learnt as the world rolls up its sleeves and prepares to assist the Japanese in this moment of truth.

Cyrenaica

The homeland of Simon the Cyrene experienced renewed attacks by Gaddafi’s army. The attacks have intensified ever since Gaddafi noticed the general shuffling of feet by the international community. His mediatic onslaught, parallel to the bombs and missiles, sowed enough seeds of doubt to prevent a decisive support action that might have boosted the rebel forces’ chances. Gaddafi does not have all the merit (if merit it is) for the doubt that crossed the minds of potential international interveners.

There is much about Iraq and Afghanistan in the hesitation to intervene in Libya. References to “past mistakes” tend to produce the proverbial cold feet. So as your average Benghazi is riding his Toyota pickup with his hands on a light machine gun, praying that the international community pick out Gaddafi’s airborne forces, meetings and counter-meetings from Washington to Brussels seem to produce many words but little effective action.

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Ungainly giants

The business of “past mistakes” was also raised by a French minister who pointed out, to anyone who bothered to listen, that back in 1958 the non-communist world never turned up to back the Hungarian uprising in Budapest as the Soviet tanks rushed in to crush the rebellion. As we cross-referenced the near and not so near history, all sorts of skeletons stopped gathering dust in the cupboard. The conventional idea that the “Arab World” mistrusts the West began to be severely tested the moment it became evident that no matter how much mistrust there may be, it is Western forces that can deliver a decisive blow to Gaddafi’s superior firepower.

So the Unions met and discussed. The European Union, still coming to terms with any remote idea of concerted action under Baroness Ashton, replayed the tune of slow reactivity. Sarkozy’s government acknowledged the rebel government in Libya but the EU held back. As bombs and superior power fell on Zawiya, the EU once again gave disparate messages to the international community. It was only Friday night when a clear and united approach was finally clear. Next step − get the approval of the Arab League and the African Union to actually get something done that goes beyond “Gaddafi must go”.

Malta Tourism Authority

Internationally, the mess still means that your average Simon the Cyrene in Benghazi still has nothing short of words in support of his fight against the crazy dictator. Locally (or nationally as some like to point out), the only institution that had a clear position on the Libyan crisis was the Malta Tourism Authority. It moved swiftly to curb the damage being wrought by the general idea shared by potential holidaymakers that Malta was no longer a safe place for a sun and sea holiday. This reaction was provoked by some early cancellations of holidays being justified by the fact that Malta’s role as Mediterranean Matron might make it a risky place to stay. MTA issued denials and Inhobbkom Joseph’s tourism campaign was belatedly vindicated (sic).

Otherwise, between John Dalli’s enormous faux pas, Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici’s spine-chilling appearance on Al Jazeera and Lawrence Gonzi’s insistence that Malta’s position on Libya is that “Gaddafi’s departure is inevitable”, we seem to be in quite a fix. The impression that Malta’s prime worry in the EU deliberation of more sanctions was the safeguarding of its business interests was not exactly a shining example of determined leadership. Well, so long as Hague can come over and pat Dr Gonzi patronisingly on his back, it’s all fine and dandy.

Politics Light

Were the Mayans right? Will the world end in 2012? The usual panic crowd is back. Expect the Nostradamus citations any moment soon. Over at J’accuse we’re still waiting for the infamous man with the blue turban to turn up − who knows it might be a Nato blue helmet. We’re also crossing our fingers for a week full of more decisive action in support of the Libyan rebels. That should make their being a little less unbearable.

www.akkuza.com celebrated six years of quality blogging this week. Check out the new logo and favicon on our website.


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Six Years of Quality Blogging

Today J’accuse turns six. We’ve gone a (very) long way since the 10th of March 2005. Both the national and international blogosphere have changed tremendously as befits the speed of change in the ether. From the definition of Wankellectual (first introduced on the 15th March 2005 when some bloggers had no idea the blog world even existed) to today’s commenting of the Jasmine Revolution we’ve seen all sorts of changes.

J’accuse never underestimated the power of the net. Thanks to  Mark Vella (Xifer – let’s give credit where it is due) and his constant nagging, I set up a blog and we kicked off somewhat hesitatingly back then. Six years. That’s an eternity on the net. We like to believe that although we provoke and criticise we do so fairly – in the supreme interest of the discovery of the truth. In fact, notwithstanding so many changes we insist on keeping one thing constant: quality blogging.

Which is why we urge you not to be selfish. Pass the word and share the (free) links. J’accuse… the truth if I lie… will still be blogging for a time yet (so you don’t have to).

Merci
Jacques

Interesting Facts (will be updated)

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Here’s a blogroll from our first year (2005), give us a shout if you recognise your blogname (I’ve put some authors in brackets). This, my friends was Blogosfera Mark I (apologies for the absence of (mostly dead) links:

Quod Principi Placquit

Triq il-Maqluba (Antoine Cassar)
Malta 9 Thermidor (Fausto Majistral)
Books & Beans (Pierre Mejlak)
Inutile de Dejeuner (Gybexi)
Wired Temples (Robert Micallef)
Ajjut! Ajjut! (A.O.)
Neebother (Justin BB)

In alio pediculum

Xifer (Mark Vella)
Tgedwid
Xemx u Xita (Alex Vella Gera)
Nigredo (Nigredo)
Waweasill
Bananazzurri
Chef Condom
Toni Sant (as himself)

Illiud Latine dici non potest

Diverse Ramblings (Maltagirl)
Kenneth (the guy from Mellieha)
Lost in Thought (Sharon Spiteri)
Rites of Passage (hmm)
Thea (…) Planet
Hsibijiet
il-Krizi…u kif teghlibha (Alex Vella Gera)
Rupert Cefai (Bertu)
L-Istrordut Kroniku
Le Pont Mirabeau
Mill-Art (AVG)

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For all of it’s current lease of life J’accuse has been based in Luxembourg City. It will be moving (along with us) by May 1st to Dondelange, a tiny village on the outskirts of Luxembourg City – follow the move on J’accuse.

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Non Sequitur is the longest running rubrique of J’accuse. It has not yet reached 100 posts.

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Last year J’accuse introduced the Zolabyte – a running series of guest posts inspired by the original J’accuser Emile Zola.

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J’accuse was awarded a prize for quality blogging at thê THINKABOUTIT! blogging competition organised by the European Journalism Centre (EJC).

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J’accuse is also available on twitter, facebook and as a column The Malta Independent on Sunday.

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J'accuse : They love me all

“To men fighting for their lives day by day in the foulest of physical conditions it was nauseating to read, day after day, the lying official communiqués in the Press.” I came across this quote in a book by BBC journalist John Simpson (Unreliable Sources, Macmillan 2010) that is turning out to be an excellent and informative run-through of “how the 20th century was reported”. The quote itself is from an unnamed book by A.J. Cummings, editor of the News Chronicle early last century.

John Simpson’s work provides an authoritative insight into how the relationship between the press and the world altered − starting from the Boer War at the close of the 19th century and ending with the Iraq war at the turn of this century. It shows how the press managed to morph into various forms: from a useful tool of government propaganda at the height of jingoistic enthusiasm, to the inventive “journalism” based on ‘stands to reason’ assumptions. The quest to ‘report’ (and be the first to do so) eventually got entangled with political motivation and eventually political slant.

Conflicts

As I type, BBC World News is showing an e-mail from a viewer questioning the wisdom of a news item (by John Simpson incidentally) from Libya that might have been useful in reporting the strife in a particular corner of the world but might also, the viewer argued, have put the lives of those reported in further peril. Journalists working in war conditions are often faced with dilemmas − they need to substantiate the claims of aggression, murder and violence but to do so they need hard evidence. The battle lines are also drawn in the field of information.

Colonel Gaddafi and his son Saif have proved to be adept at manipulating the one great weakness of public information: doubt. The Gaddafis may be psychotic, they may be a rambling caste of lunatics but they are demonstrating a knack for playing with the weak-kneed and abusing the loopholes opened up by questionable precedents in the past. Early in the struggle, Muammar displayed this knack by bringing into play the Tiananmen and Moscow exception. It was not just down to

braggadocio: Moscow and Beijing sit on the Security Council. Gaddafi was speaking directly to the capitals, reminding them of the precedent they had set.

This week, as the battle between rebels and faithful forces (it is not such a coincidence that this kind of plight sounds like a more mundane plot to Star Wars) seemed to be moving towards a desert-induced stalemate, Gaddafi and Saif went into a PR overdrive. Don’t laugh. I’m not referring to pills in Nescafe bull. I’m referring to the enormous effort to sell the idea that this was a legitimate sovereign government under threat from foreign forces. Precedent, precedent, precedent. The international community hesitated to echo the word in the street: “Gaddafi Out!” We ended up with sanctions and more evacuations.

Perception

In 1935, following the Italian invasion of Abyssinia, the League of Nations had also displayed an uncanny ability to hesitate − its inability to take effective action has been linked to the inability of the members to give the necessary importance to Abyssinia and their fear of driving Mussolini into Hitler’s hands. The script in Libya is not identical to the Abyssinian question, but the move by Gaddafi to appoint new envoys at the UN and to continue to plug the line that his is a government under siege that is being falsely depicted in the news is intended to destabilise concerted international action.

Gaddafi’s targets are the weak-willed members of the international community. They are those who hate to be reminded of cosying up to the dictator, or worse, those who hate to look at him and see a bad copy of themselves. They are those who fell for his trap of “precedent”. Russian TV has promoted newsclips denying any air raids on civilians. The corroboration of Gaddafi’s assertions seemed misplaced in the light of other news items from the rest of the world. While conspiracy theorists might revel in this 2011 equivalent of the moon landing denials, you do get to wonder how much of this corroboration was scripted with Chechnya on the Russians’ mind (or the early rumblings of the Jasmine revolution’s spread to China).

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Neighbours

Closer to home we had our own set of weak-willed who seemed to be prima facie advocates of caution. Their enthusiasm to play into the hands of Gaddafi and his spin soon unmasked them though. From (EU Commissioner) John Dalli to (former politician) Reno Calleja, they inexplicably pandered to the “wait and see” approach − sometimes even venturing on the “denial of violence by Gaddafi” line. Dalli stopped just short of accusing the international press of a montage that was intended to denigrate the Green Book Writer. It will be hard for Dalli to wriggle out of this mess. What counted for Joseph Muscat, with regard to image damage when it comes to management in times of crises, will also count for Dalli if what seems to be his inevitable leadership challenge ever comes true.

Malta’s press and people have enjoyed the limelight of this Libyan Crisis in a weird way. I had a bit of a problem with this sudden heroic status of our government and state because of its aiding and the “evacuation” of people caught in the midst of the Libyan Civil Uprising. Mind you, I had no problem with what was termed ‘heroics’, the government was after all doing the decent thing.

We cheered boatloads of Koreans, Chinese and Croatian workers entering the harbour. They were fleeing a war zone but it was OK − not just OK but heroic − for us to assist them in their plight. Only a few weeks back we would have had only one type of response to boatloads of refugees/immigrants fleeing their troubles. I guess our reply then would scarcely have qualified us to lick the boots of heroes.

Love
Communication has become vital in today’s world. A simple twist of words and a dedicated barrage of counter-information can make a dictator sound like the victim of a foreign conspiracy. There will always be those who are either too stupid, too duped or too involved to ask the right questions. Today’s press holds an important weapon in the battle for truth and justice. When wielded by the wrongpeople it can cause anything from irreparable damage to mental stagnation.

I wonder, though, what it will take to convince someone like John Dalli that the half a Libyan body (torso up) lying in the streets of Benghazi does not love Gaddafi. What media orchestration could have hospitals unable to take new patients, blood running on the streets and hundreds of thousands of people fleeing the country? Are all these people so stupid to have swallowed the media montages to the hilt? Really John: can you believe Muammar Gaddafi when he smiles at the BBC correspondent and says: “The people… they love me all”?

Jacques René Zammit blogs daily at www.akkuza.com… celebrating six years of pioneering quality blogging in Malta
on 10 March.

This article and accompanying Bertoon appeared yesterday in the Malta Independent on Sunday.

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A testing time for Heroes

La Stampa reports another wave of immigrants landing in Lampedusa. By ten o’clock last night four boats had arrived in less than 6 hours carrying 218 persons. The Libyan border with Tunisia is one massive refugee camp while the south to north migration seems to not have been deterred by the troubles in North Africa. This combination, added to the fact that the last thing on the mind of North African authorities is the policing of the ships leaving their ports, threatens to become an explosive nightmare and an eyeopener for the likes of the Swedish Foreign Minister.

Intanto non si ferma la nuova ondata di sbarchi di immigrati nordafricani sull’isola di Lampedusa. Dalle 22 di ieri sera sono state quattro le imbarcazioni arrivate in poco meno di sei ore, con a bordo complessivamente 218 persone, tra cui una sola donna.

Will the Maltese authorities work just as hard to provide a safe haven and a promising future for the waves of refugees and immigrants that are bound to start hitting the island as the weather gets fairer? Will the heroic and valiant efforts put at the service of the international community be maintained? This could be seen as a crisis as well as an opportunity. This is our chance to show the Swedes, the Canadians, the Chinese, the Russians and any other country that has been using Malta as a bridge for evacuation that there really is no difference between a boatload of Somalis, Eritreans or Sudanese fleeing a war-torn country and a Frigate-load, Hercules-load or Catamaran-load of Canadians, Chinese, Croatians or you name it fleeing a war-torn country.

This is when the Heroes with a capital H will begin to shine.

 

Photo from Wall Street Journal.

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